Amal Saad has been studying Hizbullah for many years. Her voice should be heard in our mainstream media on a regular basis. Like so many other nations in the past, however, the United States is unwilling to allow the real experts to speak freely (and for longer than a sound bite) on the airwaves or in our newspapers. This refusal to countenance any internal dissent or external opposition, and the hubris with which we run roughshod over any constructive alternative scenarios is helping to seal our fate.
Our domestic & foreign political behavior is ultimately self destructive. As Saad writes, the realignment of the civilian population within [and to some extent beyond] the Arab world and, especially, the consolidation of a united “Axis of Resistance” among those state & non state actors already involved is underway *now*. By refusing to listen to those voices warning Israel & the US that they are heading into an abyss by pursuing their current policies, these states and their supporters are actively accelerating their own dissolution.
And we hear western media and politicians repeating whatever Israel says without question. What proof is something we have a right to know, and we should demand from legislators and journalists. Of course, I wouldn't know this had I not found Scahill's work (and a handful of independent journalists).
One thing that rarely seems to come up when discussing all out war that could potentially result in a catastrophic defeat for Israel is the fact that they have nuclear weapons. While I can appreciate the idea that Israel may not want to use those weapons on regions that are so close to its borders, they lack MAD from any of their neighbors. Surely these various nations and quasi-states are also aware of this disparity, and I'm curious what they think of it.
Israel and it's leaders may decide to use those weapons if they felt there was a truly existential threat of total defeat, no?
i think the point is what we define as "existential". I think the amount of damage that would be inflicted to Israel would make it a place that no one would choose to live in for quite some time after the fact. The military might win in the end, but it'll be a military on a land without a country, in any meaningful sense of the word.
That's a very good point. I suppose, then, the question would be: do we think the leaders of Israel (and I suppose Israelis themselves) feel the salted earth policy to be "worth it" for what would undoubtedly be a Pyrric victory (assuming nukes are used, obviously).
i would imagine the people dont even consider it possible. at least as an american, i think its pretty obvious that the propaganda convinces us our country is invincible (no matter how many terrorist attacks we endure and guerilla wars that we've lost). so i think the israeli people (rightfully) fear war, but they don't really think it'll get as bad as I'm assuming it will. as for the leaders, the same as ours. they're getting paid and/or postponing legal consequences for their actions. they have the money to get up and move if it gets that bad.
If you get a chance, read Noam Chomsky’s The Fateful Triangle. It’s dense but invaluable. Check out the Samson Option. That’s Israel’s ultimate fallback solution to an existential threat.
Nuclear deterrence is exactly what Israel hopes to avoid. That’s why Iran is such a big worry for them. Israel knows that were Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, it (Israel) would no longer be able to act with impunity across the region. It currently bombs Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, & Yemen whenever it wants. With nuclear deterrence, that could no longer happen. Note that Israel is the one Middle Eastern country *against* having a NWFZ (nuclear weapons free zone). All other countries favor it, including Iran (which is not an Arab nation). Says a lot about the mentality of this rogue state.
It’s called The Samson Option. Seymour Hersh wrote a book about it so many years ago that no one today seems to remember it. Except for those who might invoke it.
That's a truly terrifying scenario though. And since there doesn't seem to be any modern rhetoric suggesting that Israel has changed that protocol (or refuted its existence) do you think this is a motivating reason why these various groups and nations haven't done more than Sabre rattle and stockpile? If Isael's nuclear arsenal IS in fact, the key deterring factor against a fullscale war, I suppose the last question is: what would the red line be? How FAR could Israel go before the Axis sees the threat to them as existential enough to risk nuclear retaliation?
Fwiw, I'd just like to point out the US knows exactly where the rocket that hit Syria's Golan Heights was launched from. You see, we have this thing in the sky called SBIRS (Space Based Infrared System), literally tracking every rocket launch everywhere. The US could provide a short clip of command center data feeds showing exactly where that rocket originated, if they wanted to. ;)
The incompetence of the Biden administration and the horrible makeup of an AIPAC influenced congress may be coming round full circle on them both. A majority of US citizens want the endless wars of American imperialism to end and to experience a regeneration of its society. Instead the life is being sucked dry and the US by many metrics is on par with third world countries. It would be fitting for this nation building endeavor to cease and a new world order to emerge.
I'm skeptical whenever someone reaches the conclusion that Israel will be destroyed without detailing how that would actually happen. All I've heard here is that Hezbollah has a hundred thousand or more troops and would invade parts of Israel.
On the Israeli side the war would have to be offensive. This is because the Hezbollah missiles capable of taking out infrastructure would have to be destroyed at the beginning of any war. That is why so many stealth aircraft have been ordered from the US. I also think this is the basis of US/Israeli military cooperation. The US is capable of a sustained carpet bombing campaign. Israel may not be able to conduct anything other than targeting of of individual sites.
As to a ground war, that would only happen after a sustained Israeli/American bombing campaign and Hezbollah loosening it's missiles.
Here the current war in Gaza shows us that we are well past the point where civilians are not targets. Even if the propaganda line that Hezbollah respects the rights of civilians were in fact true, it would be forced to try to disrupt the tranquility of the Israeli population by missile attacks on infrastructure in Tel Aviv.
Lastly does the Harris campaign understand what Netanyahu is doing? He obviously wants this war with Hezbollah. Her advisors know what is going on with the military build-up. Biden has enthusiastically enabled his political enemy- Bibi and declared himself to be a Zionist. Harris is not this senile. Biden can sabotage her candidacy by cooperating with the Israeli military in enabling an offensive start to this war.
So at some point she will have to either clip Bibi's wings by some definitive statement or watch herself be boxed into a corner.
Bibi has said to Congress that Israel is fighting a US war. The only thing that will stop him is the lack of US support.
Remember what happened to Hubert Humphrey in 1968.
She will not be elected if she can't find a way out of this Bibi trap.
Thanks for these thoughtful comments, Peter. I do feel like Kamala is already getting boxed into a corner. This genocide has opened the minds of a generation and they are ready to break with the Dems unless she guarantees a permanent ceasefire. I want her to do that, but I don't think she will win if she does. No idea how she can find a way out of this mess.
I have some thoughts here. Bibi's weakness is that he ignores and stonewalls the hostages. She could meet with them especially US hostages. Get in Bibi's backyard. One argument she could use for a ceasefire is that Hamas has been decimated and defeated, which the IDF claims it has almost accomplished, so we want our hostages out alive now before they die of starvation or some last ditch terrorist execution. She can also try to privately veto the start of the Israeli bombing campaign by questioning internally how this escalation is a defensive action. It's up to her advisors to start thinking along these lines.
These sound like great ideas. I like the idea of leveraging the hostages. Even just the fact that she keeps up the lie that Israel has a "right" to self defense is problematic. So, maybe she can leverage that too? Sadly, the best hope for a positive resolution may actually be a regional war that weakens Israel.
The problem with a regional war is that Israel has shown in Gaza it has no regard for civilian life. Civilians are clearly the target there. So a regional war will be a bloodbath for any and all civilians. If Hezbollah loosens its 150,000 missiles successfully the cities in Israel will be blown up and Israel will do the same thing it has done in Gaza to Lebanon and Iran. This bloodshed isn't what any sane person wants. I'm sure Harris understands this. If she just stands behind the position that an Israeli attack on Lebanon isn't defensive but offensive and can get the Pentagon to back off taking on the role of bombing Hezbollah back into the stone age to help out Bibi, she will have succeeded. Once Israel and the US start a preemptive bombing campaign to take out those missiles its all over for her and us. So I hope her advisors think this one through. I watch Bibi every day to see what he can and can't get away with. Right now he is moving soldiers to the north and the casualties are increasing. But he can't do anything major with bombing without US full support. If she wants to be President she will have to stop the escalation before it starts. Here's hoping.
I saw some reporting this morning saying that Netanyahu stated that the US gave him full support for war with Lebanon. Remains to be seen if this is true. I agree about the bloodshed. But how much longer can this be put off. I think the Palestinians realize they will be left with nothing if Israel is not stopped now. The far right does not want peace with the Palestinians; they want peace amongst themselves without the Palestinians existing.
Bibi has seen that US is without an executive, he owns the Congress and his golden boy Trump is likely to lose. He has decided that this is the time to do what previous presidents have stopped him from doing - drag us into a war with Iran.
Amal didn’t believe Israel would be so bold as to attack Beirut but added they aren’t rational players. Well, they did it. It occurred since this interview came out.
Israel attack on Beirut apartment building left 3 killed and many wounded from AP news. However news reports are also saying the target escaped. Israel's bad!
The concept of The Greater Israel is very real in Israel's ultra conservative govt. This means much more land grab incl the West Bank. Netanyahu is desperate to set himself up in history as the saviour of Greater Israel IMO. Also there are massive gas deposits in maritime waters off Gaza which Israel is claiming as an Israeli resource, denying Palestinians have any right to this wealth. A fossil fuel war ???
Get a grip people. If we want to survive on this planet a huge input into peace and cooperation is essential.
Amal Saad has been studying Hizbullah for many years. Her voice should be heard in our mainstream media on a regular basis. Like so many other nations in the past, however, the United States is unwilling to allow the real experts to speak freely (and for longer than a sound bite) on the airwaves or in our newspapers. This refusal to countenance any internal dissent or external opposition, and the hubris with which we run roughshod over any constructive alternative scenarios is helping to seal our fate.
Our domestic & foreign political behavior is ultimately self destructive. As Saad writes, the realignment of the civilian population within [and to some extent beyond] the Arab world and, especially, the consolidation of a united “Axis of Resistance” among those state & non state actors already involved is underway *now*. By refusing to listen to those voices warning Israel & the US that they are heading into an abyss by pursuing their current policies, these states and their supporters are actively accelerating their own dissolution.
And we hear western media and politicians repeating whatever Israel says without question. What proof is something we have a right to know, and we should demand from legislators and journalists. Of course, I wouldn't know this had I not found Scahill's work (and a handful of independent journalists).
They just want to stir up enough shit that Uncle Sam will bomb Iran for them.
One thing that rarely seems to come up when discussing all out war that could potentially result in a catastrophic defeat for Israel is the fact that they have nuclear weapons. While I can appreciate the idea that Israel may not want to use those weapons on regions that are so close to its borders, they lack MAD from any of their neighbors. Surely these various nations and quasi-states are also aware of this disparity, and I'm curious what they think of it.
Israel and it's leaders may decide to use those weapons if they felt there was a truly existential threat of total defeat, no?
i think the point is what we define as "existential". I think the amount of damage that would be inflicted to Israel would make it a place that no one would choose to live in for quite some time after the fact. The military might win in the end, but it'll be a military on a land without a country, in any meaningful sense of the word.
That's a very good point. I suppose, then, the question would be: do we think the leaders of Israel (and I suppose Israelis themselves) feel the salted earth policy to be "worth it" for what would undoubtedly be a Pyrric victory (assuming nukes are used, obviously).
i would imagine the people dont even consider it possible. at least as an american, i think its pretty obvious that the propaganda convinces us our country is invincible (no matter how many terrorist attacks we endure and guerilla wars that we've lost). so i think the israeli people (rightfully) fear war, but they don't really think it'll get as bad as I'm assuming it will. as for the leaders, the same as ours. they're getting paid and/or postponing legal consequences for their actions. they have the money to get up and move if it gets that bad.
If you get a chance, read Noam Chomsky’s The Fateful Triangle. It’s dense but invaluable. Check out the Samson Option. That’s Israel’s ultimate fallback solution to an existential threat.
Nuclear deterrence is exactly what Israel hopes to avoid. That’s why Iran is such a big worry for them. Israel knows that were Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, it (Israel) would no longer be able to act with impunity across the region. It currently bombs Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, & Yemen whenever it wants. With nuclear deterrence, that could no longer happen. Note that Israel is the one Middle Eastern country *against* having a NWFZ (nuclear weapons free zone). All other countries favor it, including Iran (which is not an Arab nation). Says a lot about the mentality of this rogue state.
It’s called The Samson Option. Seymour Hersh wrote a book about it so many years ago that no one today seems to remember it. Except for those who might invoke it.
That's a truly terrifying scenario though. And since there doesn't seem to be any modern rhetoric suggesting that Israel has changed that protocol (or refuted its existence) do you think this is a motivating reason why these various groups and nations haven't done more than Sabre rattle and stockpile? If Isael's nuclear arsenal IS in fact, the key deterring factor against a fullscale war, I suppose the last question is: what would the red line be? How FAR could Israel go before the Axis sees the threat to them as existential enough to risk nuclear retaliation?
Dancing on a razor's edge, to be sure.
Thanks Jeremy. This and your previous articles have been fascinating to read.
Fwiw, I'd just like to point out the US knows exactly where the rocket that hit Syria's Golan Heights was launched from. You see, we have this thing in the sky called SBIRS (Space Based Infrared System), literally tracking every rocket launch everywhere. The US could provide a short clip of command center data feeds showing exactly where that rocket originated, if they wanted to. ;)
I appreciate this reporting. Thoughtful discussion of a particular event, and excellent context for how this fits into a broader picture.
This is just… terrifying
What is terrifying is what has been going on in Palestine for over a half century!
The incompetence of the Biden administration and the horrible makeup of an AIPAC influenced congress may be coming round full circle on them both. A majority of US citizens want the endless wars of American imperialism to end and to experience a regeneration of its society. Instead the life is being sucked dry and the US by many metrics is on par with third world countries. It would be fitting for this nation building endeavor to cease and a new world order to emerge.
I'm skeptical whenever someone reaches the conclusion that Israel will be destroyed without detailing how that would actually happen. All I've heard here is that Hezbollah has a hundred thousand or more troops and would invade parts of Israel.
On the Israeli side the war would have to be offensive. This is because the Hezbollah missiles capable of taking out infrastructure would have to be destroyed at the beginning of any war. That is why so many stealth aircraft have been ordered from the US. I also think this is the basis of US/Israeli military cooperation. The US is capable of a sustained carpet bombing campaign. Israel may not be able to conduct anything other than targeting of of individual sites.
As to a ground war, that would only happen after a sustained Israeli/American bombing campaign and Hezbollah loosening it's missiles.
Here the current war in Gaza shows us that we are well past the point where civilians are not targets. Even if the propaganda line that Hezbollah respects the rights of civilians were in fact true, it would be forced to try to disrupt the tranquility of the Israeli population by missile attacks on infrastructure in Tel Aviv.
Lastly does the Harris campaign understand what Netanyahu is doing? He obviously wants this war with Hezbollah. Her advisors know what is going on with the military build-up. Biden has enthusiastically enabled his political enemy- Bibi and declared himself to be a Zionist. Harris is not this senile. Biden can sabotage her candidacy by cooperating with the Israeli military in enabling an offensive start to this war.
So at some point she will have to either clip Bibi's wings by some definitive statement or watch herself be boxed into a corner.
Bibi has said to Congress that Israel is fighting a US war. The only thing that will stop him is the lack of US support.
Remember what happened to Hubert Humphrey in 1968.
She will not be elected if she can't find a way out of this Bibi trap.
Thanks for these thoughtful comments, Peter. I do feel like Kamala is already getting boxed into a corner. This genocide has opened the minds of a generation and they are ready to break with the Dems unless she guarantees a permanent ceasefire. I want her to do that, but I don't think she will win if she does. No idea how she can find a way out of this mess.
I have some thoughts here. Bibi's weakness is that he ignores and stonewalls the hostages. She could meet with them especially US hostages. Get in Bibi's backyard. One argument she could use for a ceasefire is that Hamas has been decimated and defeated, which the IDF claims it has almost accomplished, so we want our hostages out alive now before they die of starvation or some last ditch terrorist execution. She can also try to privately veto the start of the Israeli bombing campaign by questioning internally how this escalation is a defensive action. It's up to her advisors to start thinking along these lines.
These sound like great ideas. I like the idea of leveraging the hostages. Even just the fact that she keeps up the lie that Israel has a "right" to self defense is problematic. So, maybe she can leverage that too? Sadly, the best hope for a positive resolution may actually be a regional war that weakens Israel.
The problem with a regional war is that Israel has shown in Gaza it has no regard for civilian life. Civilians are clearly the target there. So a regional war will be a bloodbath for any and all civilians. If Hezbollah loosens its 150,000 missiles successfully the cities in Israel will be blown up and Israel will do the same thing it has done in Gaza to Lebanon and Iran. This bloodshed isn't what any sane person wants. I'm sure Harris understands this. If she just stands behind the position that an Israeli attack on Lebanon isn't defensive but offensive and can get the Pentagon to back off taking on the role of bombing Hezbollah back into the stone age to help out Bibi, she will have succeeded. Once Israel and the US start a preemptive bombing campaign to take out those missiles its all over for her and us. So I hope her advisors think this one through. I watch Bibi every day to see what he can and can't get away with. Right now he is moving soldiers to the north and the casualties are increasing. But he can't do anything major with bombing without US full support. If she wants to be President she will have to stop the escalation before it starts. Here's hoping.
I saw some reporting this morning saying that Netanyahu stated that the US gave him full support for war with Lebanon. Remains to be seen if this is true. I agree about the bloodshed. But how much longer can this be put off. I think the Palestinians realize they will be left with nothing if Israel is not stopped now. The far right does not want peace with the Palestinians; they want peace amongst themselves without the Palestinians existing.
As long as Israel has the US in its back pocket it can bully any nation
in the middle east around. They have middle fingered the WORLD.
Bibi has seen that US is without an executive, he owns the Congress and his golden boy Trump is likely to lose. He has decided that this is the time to do what previous presidents have stopped him from doing - drag us into a war with Iran.
Amal didn’t believe Israel would be so bold as to attack Beirut but added they aren’t rational players. Well, they did it. It occurred since this interview came out.
We are a colony of the zionist entity.
Israel attack on Beirut apartment building left 3 killed and many wounded from AP news. However news reports are also saying the target escaped. Israel's bad!
The concept of The Greater Israel is very real in Israel's ultra conservative govt. This means much more land grab incl the West Bank. Netanyahu is desperate to set himself up in history as the saviour of Greater Israel IMO. Also there are massive gas deposits in maritime waters off Gaza which Israel is claiming as an Israeli resource, denying Palestinians have any right to this wealth. A fossil fuel war ???
Get a grip people. If we want to survive on this planet a huge input into peace and cooperation is essential.
https://www.newarab.com/analysis/israel-sets-its-sights-gazas-offshore-gas
How do you say that "Allahu Akbar!"